Recession Talk and the April 15 Deadline: Time to Get Clear on Your Numbers
If you’ve been watching the markets or talking with your neighbors, you’ve probably heard it too: the R-word is back.
A recent survey of ag economists says 62% believe the row crop sector is already in a recession. Net returns are down. Inputs aren’t backing off. And consolidation? It’s creeping in faster than most folks expected.
That’s a hard pill to swallow when you’re gearing up for planting season. And it’s exactly why now—more than ever—you need a clear plan.
The ARC/PLC Deadline Is No Time for Guesswork
Tuesday, April 15, is the last day to enroll in USDA’s Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) or Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs for the 2025 crop year. These aren’t just boxes to check. They’re real tools designed to soften the blow when the bottom drops out of your prices or revenue.
You don’t want to be scrambling through paperwork at the last second. You also don’t want to pick a program just because it’s what you’ve always done. The wrong decision here could leave dollars on the table—or worse, leave you exposed if prices drop again.
If you haven’t run the numbers yet, there’s still time. But not much.
Where This Fits in the Bigger Picture
The reality is, programs like ARC and PLC are just part of the safety net. They won’t fix a broken balance sheet. But they can buy you time—and when you're staring down tight margins and shaky demand, time is valuable.
That same survey showing recession concerns also pointed to consolidation as a growing concern. The operations that are growing? They’ve got a firm grip on their numbers. They know their cost of production, and they’re not winging it when it comes to cash flow planning.
If you’re running lean, or trying to keep the family operation moving forward, it’s not enough to hope things bounce back. You’ve got to manage with intention. And you’ve got to do it with eyes wide open.
What to Do Right Now
Here’s what I’m telling our clients this week:
Get crystal clear on your numbers. Don’t guess at break-evens. Know them.
Double-check your ARC/PLC elections. Your FSA office isn’t going to chase you down. You’ve got to own this.
Get honest about your cash flow. If your margins are thinning out, don’t wait until you're in a bind to build a plan.
Don’t sit still if you’re uneasy. If your margins look rough—or nonexistent—this is the time to get help, not hide.
This year may not be the easiest. But the folks who will weather it well aren’t the ones who got lucky. They’re the ones who made deliberate decisions when it counted.
Let’s Get Through It Together
If you’re worried about what this year looks like—or how you’re supposed to make sound decisions when the headlines won’t quit—let’s talk. Whether it’s running an ARC vs. PLC comparison or mapping out your cost structure, we’re here.
We help producers every day turn chaos into clarity. You don’t have to make these decisions alone.
