When Headlines Hijack the Market: Navigating China's New Tariffs in Agriculture

It’s not the forecast or the fundamentals shaking the market this week—it’s the front page.

China announced a 34% retaliatory tariff on all U.S. goods, effective April 10. The move comes on the heels of President Trump’s latest tariff escalation—including a 10% tariff on all imports and up to 54% on Chinese goods. It didn’t take long for the ag markets to react. Wheat, corn, beans, cattle, cotton—you name it, it got hit.

Even if China doesn’t buy a lot of U.S. wheat, the market doesn’t like uncertainty. And right now, the uncertainty is thick.

The Immediate Impact on Agriculture

The announcement sent shockwaves through the agricultural sector:

• Soybeans: Futures plunged by 22 to 25 cents, with cash prices down nearly 18 cents to $9.54¼. Open interest is climbing, indicating new sellers are entering the market.

• Corn: Prices slipped by 5 to 7 cents, reflecting bearish sentiment and general market jitters.

• Wheat: Chicago SRW futures fell 2 to 4 cents. Even though China isn’t a major buyer, the ripple effect has traders on edge.

• Cotton: Contracts were limit down, dropping another 220 to 301 points, made worse by declining crude oil prices.

• Cattle: Live cattle futures softened further, down $2.32 to $2.75, with feeder cattle off $3.47 to $4.80. The market remains cautious, waiting for clarity on beef exports.

A Wake-Up Call, Not a Collapse

Let’s be clear—this isn’t 2018 all over again. Yet.

But it is a moment where traders are choosing safety over risk. The result? Sharp drops in futures prices across the board. Soybeans are leading the panic. Cotton’s falling fast. And even corn, which isn’t heavily tied to Chinese demand, is feeling the pressure.

The Bigger Picture: What’s Happening in Washington and Abroad

The current trade tensions are part of a broader pattern of escalating tariffs and retaliations:

• U.S. Tariffs: In February 2025, the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a 10% tariff on all imports from China.

• China's Response: Prior to the recent 34% tariff, China had already imposed additional tariffs of 10-15% on key U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans, pork, and beef.

All these tariffs are adding up. Right now, the U.S. is expected to sell about $170.5 billion worth of ag products to other countries this year—but we’re set to buy even more, around $219.5 billion. That leaves a $49 billion gap. We’re falling behind—and fast.

This Is the Time to Tighten Your Grip

In moments like this, the best thing you can do is stay calm, stay focused, and stay informed. This isn’t the time to chase every headline or make knee-jerk moves. Weather still matters. Supply and demand still matter. But the noise is loud right now, and it’s driving more than just the news cycle.

We’re watching volume and closes. We’re tracking who’s buying and who’s backing off. And we’re keeping a close eye on how the world responds—because if more trade partners shift, it’ll show up in your markets.

Where We Go From Here

If you’re an ag producer, this might feel like a gut punch. But we’ve been here before. What matters now is how you manage the risk in front of you.

Don’t trade on emotion. 

Know your cost of production.

Be ready to act when the opportunity shows up again. But hopefully you won’t have to. 

Markets move fast. Headlines fade. But the good operators—the ones who thrive long-term—keep their head on straight even when the world feels sideways.

If you have questions or want to talk through your plan, reach out. We’re here for the hard stuff too.